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UNDERSTANDING OUR WEATHER AND IMPROVING OUR RESEARCH THROUGH THE STUDY OF METEOROLOGY AT THE UNIVERSITY LEVEL
A CANDID CONVERSATION WITH DR. GARY LACKMANN OF NC STATE UNIVERSITY IN RALEIGH ABOUT HOW RESEARCH METEOROLOGY AT THE UNIVERSITY LEVEL HELPS US BETTER UNDERSTAND OUR CHANGING WEATHER AND HELPS IMPROVES FORECASTING AND COMMUNICATIONS IN NORTH CAROLINA.
Dr. Gary Lackmann is an Atmospheric Scientist and Head of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University in Raleigh where he teaches synoptic meteorology at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and numerical modeling of the atmosphere. Dr. Lackmann also heads the Extreme Weather and Climate Research Laboratory site at NCSU. He received both his BS in Atmospheric Science and his MS in Atmospheric Science from the University of Washington and received his PhD in Atmospheric Science from the University at Albany - State University of NY.
INTERVIEWER INTRODUCTION
THIS SPACE RESERVED FOR INTERVIEWER OPENING REMARKS
Gary, it is so good to see you and talk to you again. There are so many topics that I want to ask you about, and it is so difficult to know where to begin.
Can we start with finding ways to improve our ability to communicate forecasts to the public and to government agencies when and where they are most needed? What can you tell us about our ability to communicate important forecast data on a timely basis?
It is also good to see you again. And yes, this is a good place to start as this issue continues to be a most important and challenging one for all of us.
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I often quote an article from the 1990s which stated that weather forecasts have no intrinsic value. They acquire value only through use and application in decision-making. The meaning here is that our forecasts, no matter how accurate they may become, are not useful unless we can communicate them effectively to stakeholders, the general public, emergency managers, and others who have the responsibility to use them in decision making on a timely basis.
This is a top-priority for us, and while we have made great strides here in recent years, there is clearly room for much more improvement in communication.
Well said, and so very important. It seems that in recent years there has been an up-tick in the use of social media to disseminate forecasts and severe weather warnings. What can you tell us?
Yes, the use of social media is one way that we may be able to get information out sooner and to the right populations, but there are several serious challenges in our doing so.
Gary, can you give us some examples of these challenges?
When trying to use social media to communicate weather conditions, major challenges include the spread of misinformation, difficulty in reaching the right audiences, the potential for sensationalism, user interpretation issues, and the need to balance timely updates with accuracy, especially during critical weather situations.
Also, social media is prone to the spread of inaccurate weather information from unreliable sources, including unverified user posts, which can lead to confusion and potentially dangerous actions.
These are certainly important considerations as this aspect of using social media continues to grow. Can you possibly tell us a bit more?
I think that the pressure to attract attention on social media often leads to overdramatizations of weather events and can cause unnecessary public panic.
On the other hand, shorter social media posts may not provide enough context for complex weather patterns, leading to misinterpretations. It is often difficult to find just the right approach.
Reaching specific demographics or localized areas with accurate weather information using social media is still a challenge due mainly to the diverse nature of social media users. Language barriers are also an issue as communicating weather information in different languages on a global platform can present challenges.
A recent positive example has been the social media work of Ethan Clark, an NC State student who has a large following on social media. He is careful to provide accurate and measured information to users, and he “localizes” forecast products to the community level. During Hurricane Helene, he is credited with having saved lives in North Carolina with his social media posts.
There are others to be sure, but these are some of the most important ones.
Yes there certainly are issues with using social media, but in time, I hope that most of these can be resolved. By now we are all more than aware of the terrible impact that Hurricane Helene had on Western North Carolina last fall. What can you tell us about the forecasting of this major weather event, and also the efforts to get this information to the right agencies in time to use it?
Sadly, too often we see examples of good forecasts but still an alarming loss of life and property. The recent case of Helene provided many examples of this, but that event also exposed other complex issues: How do we communicate threats from multiple hazards, and how can predicted threats be effectively communicated?
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Helene was accompanied not only by extreme flooding, but also by damaging winds, mudflows, debris flows, and landslides.
While I have heard that our weather-related warnings were issued in a timely manner, I have also learned that our forecasts and warnings for the mudflows, debris flows, or landslides were inadequate.
​I understand that there was a major precipitation event in our mountains prior to the arrival of Helene, and this made the hurricane event even more disastrous.
Yes, the heavy rain in the North Carolina mountains significantly saturated the ground beforehand, leading to extreme flooding once the hurricane arrived due to what we call an "upslope effect". This is where moist air is forced to rise over the mountains, causing heavy precipitation.
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In the days before Helene's landfall, there were 10 to 15 inches of rain across the region, saturating the ground and swelling the rivers. Essentially, the pre-existing rain left little room for additional water, resulting in catastrophic flooding when Helene hit. Rivers overflowed their banks, and as we know, washed away entire towns and roads​.
The saturated soils also increased treefall when the strong winds associated with the core of Helene reached the Southern Appalachians.
Each of these events by themselves were bad enough, but the occurrence of them one right after the other, and in the same area is certainly a recipe for disaster. In general, what would you say are a few things that we should all be beware of in regard to the areas we live in and frequently visit?
There are certainly educational opportunities here. For example, by increasing “landscape literacy”, we can also increase public awareness of “geohazards” in their vicinity.
What do you mean by "landscape literacy”?
Landscape literacy is the ability for us to better understand specific areas and their terrains by recognizing their resources and problems, how they came to be, and how they are sustained.
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Landscape literacy can help community residents and public officials understand both the risks and opportunities of a specific locale. One out-of-state example I am well familiar with is called the West Philadelphia (PA) Landscape Project that employed landscape literacy to restore water quality and rebuild a neighborhood. The project involved detaining stormwater runoff on vacant blocks to eliminate sewer overflows.
More generally, many people are living in the vicinity of geohazards of which they are not aware. This could include flooding, landslides, wildfires, earthquakes, groundwater contamination, or other phenomena.
And before we move on, what did you mean when you mentioned public awareness of “geohazards”?
Good question. Geohazards are events that may or may not be hazardous to people or infrastructure. These types of events may occur in more remote areas with no hazardous impact, or in more densely populated areas where they can have a disastrous impact.
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Good examples of geohazards related to weather events are volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, mudslides or landslides, avalanches, glacial surges and outburst floods, tsunamis, and land collapses due to thawing permafrost.
We may hear about some of these that occur in remote areas, but we pay little attention to them until they occur in more populated areas,
Interesting. Moving on, it seems that we are hearing more and more about the effect of change in ocean temperatures on our weather. What can you tell us about this phenomenon?
Well, as we saw during this past year, record warm ocean temperatures have led to record levels of atmospheric water vapor. Scientifically, we can think of water vapor as “weather fuel,” and the extreme weather we have seen globally is connected to this phenomenon.
Any recent examples, please?
The mid-September 2024 “no-name storm” that caused significant flooding in Brunswick County (NC), Hurricane Helene in late September (NC), and Hurricane Milton also in late September (FL). These are a few recent examples of this phenomenon in our region that occurred around the same time as Helene. The record warm ocean temperatures at the time of these storms are likely attributable to several sources, including human-induced climate warming, natural variability, the recent El Nino event, and perhaps changes in ship emission regulations.
When rare extreme weather conditions like these occur, or are expected to occur, it adds substantial communication challenges because there is no context in the experiences of the public. Sometimes, forceful wording is interpreted as sensationalism.
What does your use of the word 'context' mean here?
I'll provide an example.
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Let’s say that the public memory still includes a recent and very notable severe storm. This remembrance may give people a context or expectation for how bad an upcoming event of similar proportions may be. Then, when the new event occurs and perhaps sets new records, it may be difficult for people to appraise the risks, hazards, and overall conditions caused by the new event. In other words, their reference point may still be the previous event.
So when people learn of a new warning, and they are deciding what action to take, this kind of context often factors into the decision-making process. They may base their preparations and courses of action on the previous event, even though they may have been alerted of an even greater event.
Can you give us one example of the significant improvements in forecasting that have been made more recently?
I hope that the huge strides in weather prediction that have been made in the last several years are evident to all of us. The superb forecasts of the projected precipitation that would be caused by Hurricane Helene provide a recent example.​​
I would also say that the evolvement of computer simulations or models that use current weather data to forecast future weather condition are really good examples of these improvements. Model based forecasts have proven to be very useful for short-term warnings and evacuations. But in our rapidly warming climate, better longer-term planning is needed for accurate forecasting of changing weather extremes.
In light of improvements in the forecasting of serious recurring events in more vulnerable areas, what is one thing that need to be done in terms of reducing loss of life and property damage in these areas?
Our floodplain mapping really needs to be updated, and we also need to update our urban planning so that we can account for recurring and increasing extreme precipitation.
Anything else you want to mention here?
Yes. To reduce the loss of life and property, we need to limit development in high-risk areas, and we also need to implement mitigation efforts in urban and vulnerable areas. Of course, improving development planning will require government policy changes.
Improvements of the communication of extreme hazards is also critical. Using mobile, hand-held devices and social media, these improvements are possible.
All this seems to make good sense and with a little effort, perhaps these improvements are possible. Now, can we discuss cooperation between the University and state government? Can you give us an example of how this cooperation may be impacting environmental and infrastructure planning?
Yes, and to give you one example, several NC State investigators, including myself, are working with the NC Department of Transportation to prepare a transportation infrastructure for future flooding.
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In the past, transportation infrastructure planning was based largely on historical precipitation data, but in recent years, the NC-DOT has recognized the need to take anticipated future conditions into consideration in their planning.
Our group is providing simulations of “future” storm effects, using computer models that simulate certain historical events using warmer climate factors to see how the impacts changed. This allows the NC-DOT to “stress test” their transportation designs for future conditions​.
Very interesting. Can you give us an example of the results of a study like this one?
One subset of this project was the re-simulation of the impacts of Hurricanes Ivan and Frances (both in 2004) in North Carolina, but using theoretical warmer climates in our modeling. These storms affected the mountainous areas of Western NC, including many of the same areas impacted by Hurricane Helene. We learn much valuable information from studies like this one, and as a result found that there are many aspects of improved transportation design that can help to reduce the impact of future storms.
Of course, for some extreme weather-related events, there will always be some level of vulnerability in spite of all of the research and modeling that we might implement.
Can I mention one other important aspect of our research here?
Of course! The more we know about your work, the more we can appreciate your results and how they can help all of us in our ever changing climate.
Given that precipitation rates are projected to increase, knowing the amount of the increase through research and modeling can help state and local government set requirements for things like culvert and retention pond capacity, roadway crests, bridge heights, and road elevations.
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​For example, increases in permeable surfaces (surfaces that allow gases or liquids to pass through them) in urban areas can reduce runoff and prevent flash flooding.
And for extreme heat conditions, the reduction in heat-absorbing building materials, more availability of cooling centers, and increased vegetation can all help to alleviate some of these conditions as well.
What about AI (artificial intelligence) and ML (machine learning)? Will these eventually be helpful in forecasting?
Yes, there is certainly a potential use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in forecasting, which is advancing very rapidly. But we need to carefully integrate AI into forecast systems and realize the advantages while limiting dangers inherent in this approach.
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I still maintain that our most important gains need to be in the area of improvements in the communication of forecast information.
Again, what real value are improvements in forecasting if we cannot successfully get this information out to where it is needed, when it is needed, and in a manner that all levels of government and private citizens can understand and react to?
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And please keep in mind that some small-scale weather threats, such as summer storms, will always be extremely difficult to pinpoint.
Another thing I wanted to ask you about is something called “probabilistic” forecasting which may be superior to some other forms of forecasting. What are your thoughts?
Generally speaking here, probabilistic forecasting predicts future weather events by providing a range of possible outcomes, along with the probability of each outcome occurring, rather than just a single predicted outcome or forecast. This can allow a better understanding of the uncertainty surrounding a forecast and encourage more informed decision making in situations that may have varying outcomes.
I do believe that probabilistic forecasting is the better method, as this includes data about the uncertainty and confidence of forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting will also alert people about low-probability extreme events that are within the realm of possibility. However, one important obstacle is that the public needs to become accustomed to viewing forecast information in this type of format, and local broadcasters can certainly help with this.
Moving on a bit, can you tell us why there often appears to be significant variations between domestic and international forecast models when it comes to the probable tracks of some hurricanes and tropical depressions? This is something we often observe, especially when the weather event may still be days away from a given area.
Back to probabilistic forecasting again - I really believe that a large part of the problem here is that not all of these forecasting methods use probabilistic forecasting to plot the probable paths of impending storms.
The atmosphere by itself is certainly a complex and chaotic system, and forecasts should be made “probabilistically” to better inform the public - not only of the most likely outcome of a particular system where they live, but also about the degree of uncertainty in that forecast.
No forecast is completely certain, and communicating uncertainty (or certainly) for particular storm paths is a key piece of information that we do not provide in the manner that we should. It might make more sense to the public if each of these different tracks had a degree of certainty (or uncertainty) associated with them.
What about the websites that provide weather forecasts and other weather-related information? Do you have any favorites that you use?
Very good question. While there are many useful weather websites out there now, the right one for a given person may depend on their level of technical comfort. My favorites will probably not be good for many non-specialists, but here are a couple of them:
https://www.windy.com/?35.718,-78.843,5
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/
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​And here is one that is for North Carolina: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/cardinal/scout/
Thank you for these links, and I hope that many of us will go there and see for themselves if one or more are useful for them, So now, let us move on to a discussion of meteorology - both at high level and also at the university level. Where would you like to start?
Meteorology is really a very broad term that includes things like the study of atmospheric composition, history, and even includes the study of the atmospheres of other planets. Traditionally, meteorology is more focused on weather analysis and forecasting.
Personally, I would define it as the study of the physical processes that are important to weather systems on all scales. This definition includes mathematical equations and physics that are used to describe atmospheric flows and structure.
Can you tell us what levels of education are typically offered in university meteorology programs?
I would think that the meteorology programs that most universities have are similar to those offered at NC State.
We offer a bachelor’s degree in atmospheric science, geology, oceanography, and natural resources. We also offer Master of Science PhD degrees in Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Science.
In view of everything that you have told us so far, would it not be fair to say that the study of meteorology at the university level is not static or unchanging like it might be for curriculums like accounting, pre-law and business management?
This is very true, and I view the study of meteorology to be dynamic (always changing). I view this as not only a challenge, but as an opportunity as well!
A big part of this challenge and opportunity is that it is absolutely necessary that we keep our curricula up-to-date in this rapidly evolving and always changing field. The rapid evolutions in artificial intelligence and machine learning are changing the way we need to teach our students.
For example, computing and weather observing and modeling technologies are all advancing at an unprecedented rate, and this means that students need to learn to be adaptive, life-long learners. This life-long learning requirement that begins in college will also serve students well into their careers, as these evolutions will continue to challenge them well into their years in this chosen occupation.
​Well said! I hope that anyone who wants to trek down this path both understands and savors the challenges that await them and that their need for further education will never end. Perhaps we should talk about some of the many types of employment opportunities for graduates next.
I need to start here by telling you that the employment opportunities in atmospheric science have never been more diverse than they are today. Let’s discuss non-traditional fields first.
Many private sector companies recognize the growing need for atmospheric scientists on their staff, including those in the financial, agriculture, energy, transportation, and retail sectors. Most of us are well aware of the many public facing positions in broadcasting, but there are also many challenging and rewarding opportunities for meteorologists and atmospheric scientists in fields such as emergency management, insurance, and risk management.
Students who desire employment in the non-traditional sectors would do well to take courses outside the curriculum to best position themselves for postgraduate success.
What about the more traditional post-graduate opportunities? Can you touch on just a few of these for us?
Yes, many varied more traditional jobs are available - in the military sector, for the government (e.g., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Weather Service), as well as with NASA, the Department of Energy, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
In your opinion, are there any issues that come to mind that need to be addressed in helping prepare students for opportunities in private non-traditional sectors?
One could argue that we need to adjust student skills and expectations to better match the diverse needs more optimally for private sector employment.
Recent workshops have focused on how to accomplish this, and one outcome of these workshops is a set of job profiles in non-traditional sectors to help increase student awareness of these opportunities.
For high school students and those enrolled in community colleges, what are some of the traits, skills, and interests that will make them later successful in a 4-year meteorology curriculum, and also later in the marketplace?
I believe that strong quantitative skills are essential for most careers in this field.
The requirements for math, physics, and chemistry will be daunting for some. And while meteorology may be considered by many to be mostly a quantitative field, in order to understand how the atmosphere works, it is also very important to connect the physics and mathematics to atmospheric behavior.
Having said this, I also want to stress that there are opportunities on the communication side that may be somewhat less demanding of technical expertise.
We understand that there is a strong collaborative relationship between the National Weather Service (NWS) and NC State that began in the 1970's. What can you tell us?
This relationship began when meteorologists from the NWS and NC State started collaborating on projects including internships, seminars, and meetings in the 1970s.
This relationship continued to grow during the 1980s and 1990s. In 1994, the NWS office moved to a location in the campus of NC State University.
How does this relationship and location benefit students at the University?
Good question!
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The NWS office here participates in several NC State meteorology courses, runs a student internship course for credit, and has hosted many student volunteers.
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For many years now, the NWS and the University have collaborated to improve forecast and warning services in the Carolinas.
One result has been a better understanding of forecast issues found mainly in the southeast and has resulted in operational schemes that have helped NWS meteorologists forecast these meteorological phenomena more accurately.
How can those that are interested learn more about the NWS intern course on State’s Centennial Campus?
What about the North Carolina State Climate Office also located on campus? Does this help?
The North Carolina State Climate Office that is on campus serves as the primary scientific extension resource for weather and climate science for the state of North Carolina.
The office achieves its mission through climate science monitoring, education, extension, and research. It was established in 1976, and moved to NC State University in 1980.
Are there advantages to having the North Carolina State Climate Office on campus?
In short, we have a very strong collaborative partnership with Dr. Kathie Dello and the State Climate Office. Several of our graduate students are advised by Dr. Dello, and we benefit from their very strong stakeholder connections and observational capabilities.
What about relationships with local TV stations? Are there any?
We have strong partnerships with several local television stations, and our students often participate in internships at these TV stations both locally and regionally.
You might also find it interesting that we have a current broadcast meteorology course taught by NBC's Nate Johnson which has been very helpful to many broadcast-oriented students.
We are also quite proud that we have many of our program graduates on-air at several local TV stations, and around the country as well. I won’t attempt to list them all here for fear of leaving someone out.
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